Welcome to August! The start of August means we are just a few weeks away from the start of the Premier League season. Where has the time gone? It feels like yesterday that we were sweating on the final day of the season. It was a day that saw Manchester City win their fourth consecutive title.
With Premier League newcomers Southampton, Ipswich Town and Leicester City joining this season, we should expect some great races up and down the table.
Over the next two weeks I will provide betting insights for both newcomers and top teams in the league.
This week we focus on Manchester United.
Manchester United Betting Preview
Can Manchester United (+2000) win the league?
The short answer? No.
Despite winning the trophy last season, Erik Ten Hag led United to their worst season in Premier League history. A lot would have to change for me to have faith in them winning the league, even at the attractive +2000 price tag.
Finishing eighth in the table and eight points off a Champions League place was a major disappointment for United and their supporters.
Manchester United’s biggest problem has been their lack of goals against goals. They have scored just 57 goals for 58 conceded. Their 57 goals scored are 19 fewer than any team that has qualified for the European Cup.
They brought in Rasmus Hojlund last season. However, he only found the net 10 times in 30 games.
Let’s not forget that Ten Hag was in the hot seat before Sir Jim Ratcliffe extended his contract. Ratcliffe recently suggested that aiming for the Premier League title this season would be too ambitious, and I agree.
Manchester United’s goal should be to get back into the Champions League. Without Champions League games cluttering their schedule, they should make a serious push into the top four.
Despite United’s weakness in defence, the Red Devils should enjoy some breathing space. Star centre-back Lisandro Martinez is healthy and making steady progress. The Red Devils will also be able to count on the services of Luke Shaw, who was absent last season.
The signing of 18-year-old centre-back Leny Yoro has generated a lot of excitement. However, both he and Hojlund are expected to miss an extended period due to ongoing injuries.
They should move up the rankings if they can improve defensively. Finishing in the top 4 (+185) is not out of reach. However, I have them closer to sixth in my rankings.
Players to watch
Bruno Fernandes
Bruno Fernandes #8 of Manchester United celebrates at the end of the match during the FA Cup Final between Manchester City and Manchester United at Wembley Stadium in London, England on Saturday 25th May 2024. (Photo by MI News/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
NurPhoto via Getty Images
Bruno Fernandes will be the driving force for this team this season. Last year, he started 35 games and assisted on 18 goals. His eight assists match his total from the previous season. Currently, the line for assists over 9.5 is set at -150. He has not exceeded that number in his last three seasons. He has only exceeded that number once in five seasons.
He will have to contribute more if his team wants to be in contention, let alone finish in the top four.
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André Onana
COLUMBIA, SOUTH CAROLINA – AUGUST 3: Andre Onana #24 of Manchester United runs onto the pitch prior to a match between Manchester United and Liverpool FC at Williams-Brice Stadium on August 3, 2024 in Columbia, South Carolina. (Photo by Eston Parker/ISI Photos/Getty Images)
Last off-season, some thought Andre Onana was the transfer of the season. However, his first season with United was not extraordinary. The Cameroonian goalkeeper conceded 58 goals last season. His next closest tally came in 2015-16, when he played in the Eerste Divisie for Jong Ajax.
Onana is not the only one to blame for the excessive number of goals conceded. Goals are inevitable when your team concedes a lot of shots. However, Onana is a player to watch. If his play improves in his second season in the Premier League, we should see a massive increase in the level of play from Manchester United.
Favorite bet on Manchester United
The return of Jadon Sancho following his loan spell at Borussia Dortmund is a major boost for United. His creativity should help increase his team’s goal tally this season. The arrival of Joshua Zirkzee and Yoro should help strengthen that backline and give it much-needed depth.
But will that be enough to get them into the top four? Probably not. The problem is, they have no value in not finishing in the top four at -275.
There is a bet that correlates them to finishing outside the top 4, which I like: Manchester United under 64 points (-120).
Last season felt like a great season to be a bad team. With the poor level of the newly promoted teams, we were almost guaranteed to pick up at least six points from our three away games.
Manchester United collected 60 points last season, 39 from clubs in the bottom half of the table and 16 from newly promoted clubs.
The newly promoted teams this season are expected to be stronger than last season’s three. That means the bottom half teams will play tighter, knowing they need to win points when they can and not let any opportunities slip away.
